BMWKY Earnings Call Transcriptbeta

Unidentified Company Representative: Back to our quarterly earnings call. Our CEO, Oliver Zipse, and our CFO, Walter Mertl, are also back in the room with me. The line will be open shortly for your questions. The operator will give you first some technical instruction.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. And please stay tuned for our first question. Our first question comes from Patrick Hummel at UBS. Please unmute your line.

Unidentified Company Representative: Hi, Patrick, Please give -- hello, do you hear us?

Patrick Hummel: Yes, sorry, I wasn't able to unmute until now. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. If I can start, Oliver, relating to your view on the tariff relaxation that you're talking about for the second half of the year. No US OEM talked about this and it seems like based on the commentary from the media call that you take your optimism from the fact that you're such a big exporter out of the US, I just want to understand if this is the right way to read it. That's where your optimism is coming from. And could you just give a bit more color where your confidence comes from? Is it just from state level conversations with your local governor, or is it optimism coming from conversations you had with the administration in Washington? Any more color you can give would be greatly appreciated. And my second question relates to China. I'm not sure if you, for you, Oliver, or Walter, I think you're still guiding for flat or flattish volume in China this year, but the year-to-date trend is way worse than that. I understand that later in the year there is a space effect from the braking system recall, but in light of also what your competitors are saying about China, that seems a wildly optimistic assumption to take for China as far as the volumes are concerned. So I'm just curious to get a bit more color also on that topic. Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative: Okay, thank you very much, Patrick. We start with Oliver and then Walter.

Oliver Zipse: Yes. Patrick, good morning. Talking about the tariffs there, is your base assumption or our base assumption that these are temporary tariffs or permanent tariffs? I think it's obvious with what is happening currently in the United States, you cannot have the assumption that these tariffs are permanent. There's no indication that they will be permanent. They are currently in force, that's true, but currently there are a lot of negotiations behind the scenes, and that leads to the base assumption that they're rather temporary, independent what the outcome of it will be. So there's one base assumption we have because it's much more likely that they are temporary with 25% tariffs on the block for everybody in the industry has consequences. And then you make an assessment, are these consequences good for the United States or not, and then you make your own assumption what is the likely outcome. And our likely outcome is there will be tariffs even after 1st of July, of course there will be tariffs. There will be different tariffs than last year and the only question is how can you compensate them. And there are three ways of compensation for making clear that you are a large exporter and if the tariffs stay enforced, that volume will go down and nobody will like that scenario. The second thing is, are you heavily invested in the country? We are. We're heavily invested. Even though that we continue to invest now into the electric drivetrain, we set the figures in my speech, EUR1.7 billion only for the electric drivetrain for cars who come to the market in 2026 and 2026 is around the corner, though it's in the process of being invested. And if you take all that together, being the large exporter, having a growth scenario in the United States, we're not of the assumption that this is a shrinking market for us because we know our new products coming next year, we know our current product portfolio is technology open. We thrive there with BEVs, but also with V8 at the same time and that is not a contradiction. So if you look at your own business case of growth, of technology, openness of export, the likelihood and that leads to our assumption that we will have some adaptation of tariffs, for us at least, it's the right assumption. And Patrick, we know supply chains, we know what is happening. We know exactly what happened with last week's tariffs relief of 3.75% on all imports. We know exactly the effects. And if you add all that up, that leads to the assumption that we will have some form of relief there, you know.

Patrick Hummel: And do you basically assume that there is some netting of imports and exports? Is that what you expect to be enforced after July?

Oliver Zipse: I don't want to speculate. I don't want to speculate at this point in time, but I think all I can say it's a strong argument, it's a very strong argument to take that into account. That's all we can say now. What the outcome is, whether that will be something, we don't know that and I really don't want to speculate and neither I want to hope. This is not a good but we have a very, very strong argument that's all I'm saying.

Patrick Hummel: Okay.

Walter Mertl: Hi Patrick.

Patrick Hummel: Hello, Walter.

Walter Mertl: So knocking on, on this, I mean it's also the no stacking anymore, which is also playing into account, right. So that was especially between Mexico and the US burden which disappeared now from May 3rd, we shouldn't forget that. And the footprint side we elaborated beforehand. I'm happy to do that further but coming to your China question, a flattish assumption is still there and why is it? We had a discussion last year and we shouldn't forget the weak Q3 2024, which we catch up first of all, and we have been fully aware and even planned and expected that Q1 will be double-digit down year-on-year. That's the reason why we elaborated in March that we will run on the second half year run rate into Q1 and then the Q3 effect will go away, so it's rather than the Q4 run rate. On top of that we also had a discussion about our dealer network. There's the biggest hit now in Q1. We sorted already some of those. We mentioned that one beforehand. And also in Q2 there are more to be sorted. So we are dealing with that, that's the reason why we discussed about the dealer network will be more stable and profitable in the second half year, which is also helping, of course, on the sales side too. So that's the reason where we are at. Not to forget, finally, the X3, the run out of the previous X3 and now the new X3 since mid-February, just in the showrooms we have a good run rate on the new X3, it's ramping up, so we assume that one is also elevating our run rate in China and this in combination ends up in the mouth of flattish.

Patrick Hummel: Okay, thank you everyone.

Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you very much, Walter. Thank you very much, Patrick. Next question please.

Operator: Our next question comes from Stephen Reitman at Bernstein. Please unmute your line by pressing star six and ask your question.

Unidentified Company Representative: Hello, Stephen. Are you with us? Yes.

Stephen Reitman: Yes, good morning. There's a bit of delay.

Unidentified Company Representative: Yes, Good morning. Go ahead.

Stephen Reitman: Yeah, so I have two questions. Yes, good morning.

Unidentified Company Representative: Go ahead.

Stephen Reitman: I have two questions please.

Unidentified Company Representative: Go ahead, yes.

Stephen Reitman: First of all, on there, you mentioned in your commentary that you face a low 3 digit million impact from the punitive tariffs that the EU is putting on vehicles coming from -- electric vehicles coming from China. Could you comment on has there been any movement? There was talk about some kind of deal between the EU and/or some kind of compromise. So I'd be interested in what you're seeing on that and how that would impact MINI, obviously. And secondly, you did allude to some changes in the China, in the Chinese dealer network. Could you be a bit more specific about what's been happening in terms of reducing that footprint? Thank you very much.

Unidentified Company Representative: So we start with Oliver and then Walter. Oliver.

Oliver Zipse: Yes, Stephen. The total import duty for BMW from BBA will be 31%, that's 10%, which are custom in the European Union plus the 20.7%, so that's the current status. We always said this is not only highly unfair trade policy, this also hinders to bring affordable products in the electric arena to the European customer and that is why we have filed a lawsuit with the European Court to uphold our legal position. Nevertheless, we would still prefer to reach a negotiated political agreement and, as we speak, we are trying to do so. Also with the argument you cannot complain about an import duty of 25% in the United States and at the same time to impose a tariff of more than 30% to European player. Our key argument here is, in Europe, specifically BMW, we are not European players, we are global players. We export to China. We have a lot of local activities in China but we also export. So we are always affected. Whatever you do, global companies are always affected and that's why we strive for free trade and for robust trade relationships. And especially this 30% duty on imports is a very, very strong mistake the European Union does to support global players. And again in our industry, there are not very many global players, but BMW is one of them.

Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you very much, Oliver. The second part of the question was about China, the dealer network, footprint reduction. Walter?

Walter Mertl: Yeah, hello, Stephen. As we mentioned in 2024, we organized already 24 dealer points, reduced the network already last year and, in Q1, we also had a low double digit number already, transferred or closed, that's already in the middle of it. And the same is expected in Q2, so again a low double-digit number of dealers to be either transferred or closed. And the good thing is that we are finding new investors who see that BMW is very attractive to invest into and make business with, and that's the good thing. That's the reason why we can organize the dealer network right sizing so fast. And that's why we assume that from the second half year onwards we are on a better position than we are just digging through the first half year. That's the status.

Stephen Reitman: Can you talk about how many dealers do you actually have at present or did you have at the end of 2024 in China, BMW and MINI, if you can separate them or put them in?

Walter Mertl: So far still over 600 and that's the number where we have to come under.

Stephen Reitman: And that's combined BMW and MINI brands?

Walter Mertl: That's correct. It's combined, yes.

Oliver Zipse: It's combined.

Walter Mertl: Whilst you do know that BMW is a wholesale model and MINI is on direct sales model in China.

Unidentified Company Representative: Good. Thank you very much, Stephen. Thank you very much Stephen. The next question please.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jose Asumendi. Please unmute your line.

Jose Asumendi : Thank you very much and good morning. A couple of questions please. Oliver, can you please comment on the topic of US tariffs if you are taking some measures to increase prices in the US and any measures you are implementing with suppliers to increase the local content in the region. Also with regards to China, I would like to understand a little bit better if you are taking down capacity at your plants in China to adjust maybe to a low lower level of sales structure in China or you haven't done any major capacity adjustments there. Then finally, Walter, can you comment a bit on the margin progression, auto margin Q2 versus Q1? Are we still in the margin range guidance you have given for the year or is maybe Q2 a bit of an exceptional and we should be thinking about a second quarter margin, slightly below the margin range? Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you very much, Jose. We start with Oliver about the, again, the US tariffs and then China and the margin with Walter. Oliver, please.

Oliver Zipse: Yes Jose, about the tariffs again, let's look at our very, very specific situation of BMW in the United States. Let's begin with our footprint. Over the past 30 years, nearly 7 million BMWs have been assembled in the United States. And just last year in 2024, we assembled nearly 400,000 units at Plant Spartanburg. Now the peculiar part is in 2024 the plant exported around 225 million BMW vehicles with an export value of more than $10 billion, making it once again the largest automotive exporter by value in the United States. And since overall 2014, the plant in South Carolina has exported over 2.7 million BMW vehicles, representing around two thirds of its total production with an export value of more than $100 billion. Now about the localization, we have invested roughly 15 billion already in our Spartanburg plant and we are now investing another 1.7 billion to enable the production of fully electric vehicles in the United States. And alone 1 billion goes into a BEV production in Spartan book itself, 700 million for a high voltage battery assembly in Woodruff. And by the way, that investment was already announced in 2022. And I think in our negotiations about localization, it plays a role that our ongoing activities in South Carolina directly and indirectly support nearly 43,000 jobs and over 3 billion in wages and salaries in the state. With an increasing notion and the overall impact in South Carolina of more than $26 billion in South Carolina plays the role in our arguments. And I would like to emphasize again, the more we grow in the United States, the more we will also localize, and there is a direct link about localizing, exporting and growing in the market. That's one set of parameters we're trying to bring into the negotiations. And I think we have positive arguments for having some form of netting of import and exports in the United States.

Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you very much, Oliver. Walter?

Walter Mertl: Hello, Jose. So the Chinese production we always have to see in different aspects between China and non-China because the cost structure are totally different, especially the depreciation side, also labor costs. You can be assured that the cost structures are in order and targets are set to contribute also to the group contribution and to group profitability, so that is all set. I'm not worried about this point and the margin progression. You do know that we are not giving quarterly guidance, but a full year guidance. And the full year guidance is between five and seven, of course, with slight extra burden compared with the messages we have given on March 14. All the rest depends of course on the development on everything from July onwards. But as we mentioned, we will be in the guidance at full year stage. Thank you very much. Jose. Next question please.

Operator: Our next question comes from Tim Rokossa at Deutsche Bank. Please unmute your line.

Tim Rokossa: Yeah, Good morning, Can you hear me?

Unidentified Company Representative: We can hear you excellent. Please go ahead.

Tim Rokossa: That's great. Thank you, Max. That's awesome. There's always a slight delay here until we are getting rid of the mute. I have two questions, please. I think it's fair to say the most discussed element of your statement is probably the tariff point in your guidance, perhaps most likely. Walter, can you help us clarify this completely? A, the guide includes all tariffs that we know of as of today; b, you don't expect all of them to go away by the first of July, but some and then at some point within H2; and C, this does include some assumptions on mitigations. And secondly, I'd like to try that what you just responded to, Jose, slightly differently again, even Assuming some of this goes away in H2, it still means there's a pretty sizable effect in Q2, are you willing to at least quantify the Q2 effect to help us a little bit with our calculations for the full year and is it right to assume that the Q2 margin will be below the full year range given this effect? Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative: Good. Thank you very much, Tim. Walter?

Walter Mertl: Hello, Tim. Well, as I tried to mention already in the speech beforehand, we have taken all tariffs in place as of May 5, first of all, and the difference to our March guidance incorporates all tariffs on US imports of CBU and the non USMCA components at an additional 25%. A cornerstone, of course, is the last executive order from last week because that took away the stacking approach, plus opened up the eligibility of the 3.75% of the MSRP for the Spartanburg production volume and here we participate. And of course, we assume, based on all the negotiations, what we hear, where we in different levels are also in and asked for, we assume from July a relief of the tariff burden. It's not saying that the tariff is disappearing, the tariff will be still there in which form ever, but the burden in our P&L, we assume, will be lower than currently imposed, so that is the key. And it will be a reduced cost and it's about all tariffs around the world. And of course, we focus especially on all these changes from the last two months, whatever happened, and take all mitigation aspects into consideration, utilizing all of our product network, so our production network utilizing everything possible and that ends up with this total assumption and all these premises set that for the full year we are still in the guidance between 5% and 7% and not to forget, also an underpinned hint, in the previous year's level of group profit before tax. I think these in combination should give you enough information and quarterly numbers, I'm not sharing at this point. I’ll share my Q2 numbers with you end of July. Hope you understand that. Many thanks.

Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you very much Tim Rokossa. Next question, please.

Operator: Our next question comes from Philippe Houchois at Jefferies. Please unmute your line.

Unidentified Company Representative: Hello, Philippe?

Philippe Houchois: Yep. Hi.

Unidentified Company Representative: BMW is calling you.

Philippe Houchois: Thank you. I hope you hear me. Can you hear me?

Unidentified Company Representative: Yes, yes. Yes.

Philippe Houchois: Great. It's a bit [Multiple Speakers].

Unidentified Company Representative: Go ahead.

Philippe Houchois: Right. My first question is how can you be so precise about July, or is it just July is the first month of the third quarter. It seems odd. I completely understand your arguments about negotiation, about offsetting import, export, etc. Why July? And then I think you answered my next question which is that you are eligible to the 3.75% revenue rebate, which is nice, but I thought it applied only for vehicles that were USMCA compliant, and I thought you were not, except potentially on the EVs, if you're able to source more of the battery content in the US. And then more generally, it seems to me that if USMCA content is critical, as long as you import powertrain from Europe, you will not be compliant. And you already outsource more powertrain than most since the transmission comes from ZF, most of your competitors still make transmissions, so you already have some more flexibility. I'm just wondering, can you actually shift more content on the ICE side to North America, US specifically, by outsourcing more before you go to a more extreme option, which would be to relocate ICE to the US which to some extent would make sense because, one, Europe wants to kill the combustion engine and the US doesn't, so why don't you even consider shifting powertrain operations -- ICE powertrain operations out of Europe into the US? Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative: Oliver, please.

Oliver Zipse: Yeah. Philip, your. Your first question. Why July? It's not exactly July. Maybe, as I said before, the assumption and everything we talk about are assumptions we make. But we make assumptions and based on our assumption, we make a prognosis. One assumption, and I think it's the most important one, are these permanent tariffs or temporary tariffs. And we are of the opinion the tariffs are enforced right now, so we have to pay them. If they stay, there will be serious disadvantages to the whole economic system of cars being produced and sold and exported in the United States and I think there is a better model. So with our argument, we think at some point in time, and you can make assumption, is it June, July or August, we say it's right in the middle, there will be some form of negotiated agreement. The outcome, we don't know, it would be speculation. But again, as I said, we have very, very strong arguments to grow in the United States but that will only happen if we find a way to overlap component tariffs, CBO that means completed car tar tariffs, and at the same time, some form of considering that we are exporting cars. So it's not only one tariff. It's the sum of component tariffs, including the relevance of USMCA first part; the second is import/export of cars; and then of course, the local footprint, resulting into investments and creating jobs. So it's not just about this one tariff, 25%. It's much more complicated. It would lead too far to go into every detail of our assumptions and our calculations right now, but the main three elements I just talked about play a part in that. And it's an assumption that in the next three months, let's talk it like that, we will get brokers, as we have done, by the way, in the first round, which led to the 3.75%. That was also a negotiated agreement, don't forget that. And that already gave us some relief. There will never be a perfect solution where you do completely local for local that you are fully USMCA compliant and you're not at all exporting from the United States. This will never be the case for BMW. So that assumption that we are fully compliant with everything is not our assumption. It's all about mitigating negative effects. Will they ever be zero? No, there will never be complete zero, but I think they will be up to the point where they're negligible. That's our stance here.

Unidentified Company Representative: Walter?

Walter Mertl: Hello, Philip. Just always consider that this eligibility of 3.75% downwards is for parts and components imported and utilized and that's what we tune already. These ones we directly import. And of course we already in the, in the discussions with our supplier network, we also tune that one, not just our direct imports, first of all. And these numbers flying around since last week from different competitors, we should always see the footprint and compare the footprint of those compared with us, and there are massive differences, so to say. And that means that our tariff impact compared to others is different and you should consider those ones too, please. So it's not just about the stacking and the 3.75% benefit which we are benefiting from. It's also the passe footprint compared to other competitors, whatever numbers they are taking around. Who is -- and you do know who is importing from where into the US or from the US to China. Have a look on those numbers and you come to the conclusion.

Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you very much, Walter. I think we have three more questions. The next question comes from --

Operator: Our next question comes from Horst Schneider at Bank of America. Please unmute your line.

Horst Schneider: Yes, good morning and I hope you can hear me. I have got, first of all --

Unidentified Company Representative: Perfect.

Horst Schneider: That's great, thank you. The first question again on tariffs, you gave at the full year figures this number on sensitivity. If there were also tariffs raised between Europe and US, is this sensitivity now still in place or has anything about the sensitivity changed because there were retaliation measures and something happened in between on parts as well? So maybe you can update on this sensitivity guidance again. And the other question that I have is more housekeeping related. Also with regard to Q1, we see in your statements that you decrease provisions, so maybe you can tell us why the R&D capitalization went slightly up. I understand why is that a trend that we see also going forward because you finish now development on the Neue Klasse and the last one is the FX volatility has increased substantially. We saw weakening of the renminbi, of the dollar as well. I know you are naturally hedged but also financially hedged. Anything has changed about the foreign exchange sensitivity for 2025. Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative: Good. Thank you very much, Horst. Walter?

Walter Mertl: Hello, Horst. So with respect to them through the three step approach, because everything changed in total different manners, also all the mitigations. You can't do this three step approach anymore that easy because we mitigate across everything possible; supply chain, our own streams, global network. So you can't utilize this three step approach which I mentioned end of -- mid of March, sorry for that, but the basic is still there. It's just then for you more or less the question what's in between and how much we mitigate based on the latest exact orders, I think that is to say. With respect to decreased R&D, that is the trend which we mentioned in March that we are coming down quarter-by-quarter compared to 2024. Why is that? Because we had to have all the R&D set by end of this year -- by end of 2024, the majority of it, otherwise we wouldn't have a go live of our Neue Klasse. And we do know that all the tech clusters will be utilized in all cars to come, not just the next one where we have the start of production end of November in Debrecen. So, of course, Q1 has still a higher or a high level of costs but step-by-step, it's coming down as the start of production is coming closer. That is already announced. And with that the full year range is coming down but you saw already the 200 million it is lower than previous year’s Q1. With respect to the provisions on the warranty, you also asked, yeah, we have provisions not just to have them but we have them for a reason. Unfortunately we had some warranty topics which we have to pay for. And because this situation is coming into the right direction, I don't have to refill these warranty pockets currently, but I use them especially on the IVS and the EGR topics you are well aware of for the last year. So that was -- is a good progress and the payout ratio is coming step by step down. The peak was in Q4, especially because of IBS. That was the main topic in Q4. And step by step this provision will come down, of course. And FX volatility, there is no other different assumption than we had already in March. Total amount of FX and raw material side will have a mid-3 digit level year-on-year. So that's the full year number, that's not just Q1 because during the quarter you saw 100 million positive.

Horst Schneider: Thank you. My question on R&D was more related to the capitalization figure, if capitalization goes up from here or stays in the level where it was in Q1.

Walter Mertl: Yeah, yeah, yeah, sorry. Well, the capitalization level is higher in Q1 because you do know that the capitalization is based on all the projects in a quarter. Last year we had a lower capitalization level. In Q4, we were close to 50%, you remember. Now we are down under 40% and the full year number will be still in the range I mentioned last March between 35% and 40%. And I precisely mentioned even to Stephen when he raised the question at the annual press conference, it will be around the full year number of 2024 capitalization ratio.

Horst Schneider: Okay, that's clear. Thank you for that, Walter.

Unidentified Company Representative: Good. Thank you very much Horst Schneider. Next question please.

Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Tyndall at HSBC. Please unmute your line.

Michael Tyndall: I think I've done it. Hopefully you can hear me.

Unidentified Company Representative: Yeah.

Michael Tyndall: Just a couple of questions, I guess -- I mean, sorry, back to the tariff situation. Again, I'm not talking about details here, but can you just give us any detail of who are you speaking to in the administration, what sort of frequency? Because I guess from where I'm sitting you're talking about a negotiated agreement, but it feels to me as if the Trump administration's got a lot of negotiations. So can you just give us some sense of who's listening to you and how you might get some sort of agreement out of those conversations? And then the second one you talked about transfers of dealers in China, so finding new investors. I wonder if you could give us just a bit of a flavor as to what are you pitching to those new investors about the future for BMW in China? What are some of those numbers look like? Because you know from where we're sitting, we've seen the market share of that segment be squeezed. I'm wondering what you're telling people in terms of the long-term prospects in China. Thanks.

Unidentified Company Representative: Okay, thank you very much. The first part of the question will be answered by Oliver and then Walter.

Oliver Zipse: Good morning, Michael. We're deeply rooted in the United States and have been a proud member of the community for more than 50 years. And we talk to almost all stakeholders in that really large network we have over there. We are in close dialogue with the communities, including the political communities in the state of South Carolina as well as California. We of course talk on national level with various stakeholders. We also do try to exert our influence in the Mexican United States. Discussion we have at the same time about UCMCA and so on, you know that. But we also talk to our customers and I think that's the most important thing. What do our customers, what do our dealers think? We also talk one of the largest dealers in the world, they are Americans and we talk to them with their view on it. And out of this wide range of network of discussions, we try to exert a strategy of negotiations. So it's not only that we talk to one institution, we talk to almost all stakeholders and try to make our point.

Unidentified Company Representative: Walter?

Walter Mertl: Hello, Tyndall. With respect to the dealer network in China, so what are we pitching? Well, we have a future and they are well invested into BMW and why is that? Because we have a future to tell. With the Neue Klasse, we have a new set and they can earn money with us and that is the key elaboration. And we are not in the lower price segments where you eventually have this price war still, which is under 200,000 renminbi. This is not where we are in. And you do know the total market of China, 64% of the total market is in a price band less than 150,000 renminbi or roughly $20,000, we are not in that one. The next 30%, so we are ending up already on roughly 93%, 94% of the total market is up to 300,000 renminbi, or roughly $40,000. This is where we are starting being in with the 1 series which will not have a successor in China, but especially now with the 3 series, the X3, and then we start moving into these higher levels of more than 300,000 renminbis and that is very attractive. We all do know that with respect to the market share, we shouldn't forget one big topic where we had in the region 3.9 market share. That was when we had this material crisis around the world and that was when the market under 150,000 renminbi was shrinking and the customers who have been able to afford a car of more than 300,000 renminbi, they still bought and automatically or still bought, and automatically our market share rose. Now this market material crisis is over since September 2023 and since this lower price segment is growing double-digit growing last year, as you are aware of, and even this year Q1 is still the growth driver of the Chinese market. It's not over 150,000. The market or the share driver is up to 150,000. Now, the sentiment is not as good now as it was eventually two years ago. But with new competitors coming with cars bringing over 500,000 renminbi, we highly appreciate those. Why? Because competition is good for our business. Once Chinese brands bring cars for more than 500,000 renminbi, that opens the door that customers are allowed or being seen that they can also buy cars in this price range. And this is our game and our field of competitiveness and this is where we can grow. This is a lot of opportunity. Once this is opening up of more than 400 or in our case even 500,000 renminbi, this is where the opportunities are in and that's the reason why we even appreciate these competitors being in this field. And I'm not in the party to think about, well, the Chinese local shares are now up to 70% or 60% last year and they will grow still. All local OEMs will still grow in this direction but they will not be this 100%. So my assumption is still 30% of the total market in future will be still non-Chinese OEMs and that is our field. And 30% in a market of more than 23 million units is big enough for BMW to take the opportunity to earn money with. So that is our assumption. And the investors who are investing in, they're absolutely convinced about our products and our future. That's the reason why they invest into because they want to earn money like we, many folks.

Unidentified Company Representative: Good, thank you very much, Walter. So we come to the last question.

Operator: Our last question comes from Adrian Yanoshik, at Redburn Atlantic. Please unmute your line.

Adrian Yanoshik: Morning. Thanks for taking the question. I just have a couple of left -- a couple left on the US and demand there. Firstly, US industry sales were showing very strong sales rates in April. So my question is really around consumer demand. Are you able to comment on order intakes in the US, either at the retail or really the wholesale level, of course you work through dealers there and then your inventory reach into the summer. That's kind of my first question. And then secondly, are you seeing any or expect any impacts from changes to US tax regulations? So specifically Section 179, this bonus tax depreciation that's winding down, do you have an understanding of the take rate within US sales or have any expectations there.

Unidentified Company Representative: Okay, thank you very much. Walter, do you want to start?

Walter Mertl: Hello Adrian. Well, first of all, yeah, we see in US the sales is strong, not just in April, but we also see a good order take. The demand is high and we are not the OEM who stopped producing cars delivering them to the US. So, we are the OEM still producing cars and sending them to the US and, why is that, because we're earning money with and the dealerships are also earning money with selling BMW cars. And with that said, our stock level on dealer sides in the US is underpinning that. As I mentioned beforehand, our stock is reaching for currently 27 days end of April, it was 30 days end of March, whereas other ones have even stocking for more than 60 days average, as far as I'm aware is roughly 43 days. So among all of those, dealers feel more comfortable with less stock on site and that is a relief on extra transactional downturns. So we have the right stock with the dealers, that means we have a good position for transactional pricing. And don't forget -- if you have some stats with respect to transaction pricing and sales support, don't forget that the IRA lease credit on BEV share where we have 95% leasing on my books is roughly $2,000 which you have to deduct before you see the real cash support to the dealers. Other OEMs have different ratios of course. And if you take these stats, please deduct roughly $2,000, that is the mix which you have to take out, and then you see that is reaching into Q3. So -- and with respect to US tax, well if depreciation is deductible then we would be fine with that one, right, so we will see.

Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you. We will see. Thank you very much. The last words from our CFO. Thank you very much for joining us. All the best to you and bye-bye and Servus from Munich.