v3.21.2
Loans
9 Months Ended
Sep. 30, 2021
Receivables [Abstract]  
Loans
Note 9.
Loans
Loans include (i) loans held for investment that are accounted for at amortized cost net of allowance for loan losses or at fair value under the fair value option and (ii) loans held for sale that are accounted for at the lower of cost or fair value. Interest on loans is recognized over the life of the loan and is recorded on an accrual basis.
The table below presents information about loans.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         
$ in millions
   
 
Amortized
Cost
 
 
    
 
Fair
Value
 
 
    
 
Held For
Sale
 
 
  
 
Total
 
As of September 2021
                                  
Loan Type
                                  
Corporate
 
 
$  48,943
 
  
 
$  3,020
 
  
 
$2,144
 
  
 
$  54,107
 
Wealth management
 
 
35,159
 
  
 
6,616
 
  
 
 
  
 
41,775
 
Commercial real estate
 
 
17,892
 
  
 
1,655
 
  
 
2,160
 
  
 
21,707
 
Residential real estate
 
 
12,356
 
  
 
351
 
  
 
652
 
  
 
13,359
 
Consumer:
                                  
Installment
 
 
3,449
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
3,449
 
Credit cards
 
 
6,251
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
6,251
 
Other
 
 
5,308
 
  
 
462
 
  
 
538
 
  
 
6,308
 
Total loans, gross
 
 
129,358
 
  
 
12,104
 
  
 
5,494
 
  
 
146,956
 
Allowance for loan losses
 
 
(3,332
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(3,332
Total loans
 
 
$126,026
 
  
 
$12,104
 
  
 
$5,494
 
  
 
$143,624
 
 
As of December 2020
                                  
Loan Type
                                  
Corporate
    $  44,778        $  2,751        $1,130        $  48,659  
Wealth management
    25,151        7,872               33,023  
Commercial real estate
    17,096        1,961        1,233        20,290  
Residential real estate
    5,236        494        20        5,750  
Consumer:
                                  
Installment
    3,823                      3,823  
Credit cards
    4,270                      4,270  
Other
    3,211        547        416        4,174  
Total loans, gross
    103,565        13,625        2,799        119,989  
Allowance for loan losses
    (3,874                    (3,874
Total loans
    $  99,691        $13,625        $2,799        $116,115  
The following is a description of the loan types in the table above:
 
 
Corporate.
Corporate loans includes term loans, revolving lines of credit, letter of credit facilities and bridge loans, and are principally used for operating and general corporate purposes, or in connection with acquisitions. Corporate loans may be secured or unsecured, depending on the loan purpose, the risk profile of the borrower and other factors.
 
 
Wealth Management.
Wealth management loans includes loans extended to private bank clients, including wealth management and other clients. These loans are used to finance investments in both financial and nonfinancial assets, bridge cash flow timing gaps or provide liquidity for other needs. Substantially all of such loans are secured by securities, residential real estate, commercial real estate or other assets.
 
Commercial Real Estate.
Commercial real estate loans includes originated loans (other than those extended to private bank clients) that are directly or indirectly secured by hotels, retail stores, multifamily housing complexes and commercial and industrial properties. Commercial real estate loans also includes loans extended to clients who warehouse assets that are directly or indirectly backed by commercial real estate. In addition, commercial real estate includes loans purchased by the firm.
 
 
Residential Real Estate.
Residential real estate loans primarily includes loans extended by the firm to clients (other than those extended to private bank clients) who warehouse assets that are directly or indirectly secured by residential real estate and loans purchased by the firm.
 
 
Installment.
Installment loans are unsecured and are originated by the firm.
 
 
Credit Cards.
Credit card loans are loans made pursuant to revolving lines of credit issued to consumers by the firm.
 
 
Other.
Other loans primarily includes loans extended to clients who warehouse assets that are directly or indirectly secured by consumer loans, including auto loans and private student loans, and other assets. Other loans also includes unsecured consumer and credit card loans purchased by the firm.
Credit Quality
Risk Assessment.
The firm’s risk assessment process includes evaluating the credit quality of its loans. For corporate loans and a majority of wealth management, real estate and other loans, the firm performs credit reviews which include initial and ongoing analyses of its borrowers, resulting in an internal credit rating. A credit review is an independent analysis of the capacity and willingness of a borrower to meet its financial obligations and is performed on an annual basis or more frequently if circumstances change that indicate that a review may be necessary. The determination of internal credit ratings also incorporates assumptions with respect to the nature of and outlook for the borrower’s industry and the economic environment. 
The table below presents gross loans by an internally determined public rating agency equivalent or other credit metrics and the concentration of secured and unsecured loans.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         
$ in millions
   
 
Investment-
Grade
 
 
   
 
Non-Investment-
Grade
 
 
   
 
Other Metrics/
Unrated
 
 
 
 
Total
 
As of September 2021
 
                       
Accounting Method
 
                       
Amortized cost  
 
$47,429
 
 
 
$67,434
 
 
 
$14,495
 
 
 
$129,358
 
Fair value  
 
2,502
 
 
 
5,279
 
 
 
4,323
 
 
 
12,104
 
Held for sale  
 
1,151
 
 
 
4,163
 
 
 
180
 
 
 
5,494
 
Total
 
 
$51,082
 
 
 
$76,876
 
 
 
$18,998
 
 
 
$146,956
 
 
Loan Type
                               
Corporate  
 
$14,048
 
 
 
$39,809
 
 
 
$    
 
250
 
 
 
$  54,107
 
Wealth management  
 
29,631
 
 
 
5,595
 
 
 
6,549
 
 
 
41,775
 
Real estate:                                
Commercial
 
 
3,463
 
 
 
17,903
 
 
 
341
 
 
 
21,707
 
Residential
 
 
1,247
 
 
 
11,051
 
 
 
1,061
 
 
 
13,359
 
Consumer:                                
Installment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3,449
 
 
 
3,449
 
Credit cards
 
 
 
   
   
 
6,251
 
 
 
6,251
 
Other  
 
2,693
 
 
 
2,518
 
 
 
1,097
 
 
 
6,308
 
Total
 
 
$51,082
 
 
 
$76,876
 
 
 
$18,998
 
 
 
$146,956
 
 
Secured
 
 
87%
 
 
 
92%
 
 
 
42%
 
 
 
84%
 
Unsecured  
 
13%
 
 
 
8%
 
 
 
58%
 
 
 
16%
 
Total
 
 
100%
 
 
 
100%
 
 
 
100%
 
 
 
100%
 
 
As of December 2020
 
 
                       
Accounting Method
 
                       
Amortized cost
    $33,532       $58,250       $11,783       $103,565  
Fair value     2,084       5,925       5,616       13,625  
Held for sale     224       2,152       423       2,799  
Total     $35,840       $66,327       $17,822       $119,989  
 
Loan Type
                               
Corporate     $  9,478       $38,704       $     477       $  48,659  
Wealth management     22,098       5,331       5,594       33,023  
Real estate:                                
Commercial
    1,792       17,480       1,018       20,290  
Residential
    636       3,852       1,262       5,750  
Consumer:                                
Installment
                3,823       3,823  
Credit cards
                4,270       4,270  
Other     1,836       960       1,378       4,174  
Total     $35,840       $66,327       $17,822       $119,989  
 
Secured
    83%       90%       46%       82%  
Unsecured     17%       10%       54%       18%  
Total     100%       100%       100%       100%  
In the table above:
 
 
Wealth management loans included in the other metrics/unrated category primarily consists of loans backed by residential real estate and securities, and real estate loans included in the other metrics/unrated category primarily consists of purchased loans. The firm’s risk assessment process for these loans includes reviewing certain key metrics, such as
loan-to-value
ratio, delinquency status, collateral values, expected cash flows, the Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) credit score (which measures a borrower’s creditworthiness by considering factors such as payment and credit history) and other risk factors.
 
 
For installment and credit card loans included in the other metrics/unrated category, the evaluation of credit quality incorporates the borrower’s FICO credit score. FICO credit scores are periodically refreshed by the firm to assess the updated creditworthiness of the borrower. See “Vintage” below for information about installment and credit card loans by FICO credit scores.
The firm also assigns a regulatory risk rating to its loans based on the definitions provided by the U.S. federal bank regulatory agencies. Total loans included 89% of loans as of September 2021 and 85% of loans as of December 2020 that were rated
pass/non-criticized.
 
Vintage.
The tables below present gross loans accounted for at amortized cost (excluding installment and credit card loans) by an internally determined public rating agency equivalent or other credit metrics and origination year for term loans.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
   
As of September 2021
 
         
$ in millions
 
 
 
Investment-
Grade
 
 
 
 
 
Non-Investment-
Grade
 
 
 
 
 
    
Other
 
Metrics/
Unrated
 
 
 
 
Total
 
2021
 
 
$  2,910
 
 
 
$  8,217
 
 
 
$       –
 
 
 
$  11,127
 
2020
   
2,241
     
5,263
   
 
19
 
   
7,523
 
2019
   
458
     
4,377
   
 
 
   
4,835
 
2018
   
1,853
     
2,965
   
 
 
   
4,818
 
2017
   
755
     
2,029
   
 
 
   
2,784
 
2016 or earlier
   
258
     
2,157
   
 
 
   
2,415
 
Revolving
   
4,127
     
11,249
   
 
65
 
   
15,441
 
Corporate
   
12,602
     
36,257
     
84
     
48,943
 
2021
   
967
     
618
   
 
875
 
   
2,460
 
2020
   
537
     
248
   
 
 
   
785
 
2019
   
636
     
400
   
 
 
   
1,036
 
2018
   
320
     
106
   
 
 
   
426
 
2017
   
369
     
31
   
 
 
   
400
 
2016 or earlier
   
578
     
247
   
 
 
   
825
 
Revolving
   
24,796
     
2,273
   
 
2,158
 
   
29,227
 
Wealth management
 
 
28,203
 
   
3,923
     
3,033
     
35,159
 
2021
   
329
     
2,715
   
 
33
 
   
3,077
 
2020
   
322
     
2,194
   
 
 
   
2,516
 
2019
   
72
     
1,460
   
 
 
   
1,532
 
2018
   
212
     
1,055
   
 
 
   
1,267
 
2017
   
453
     
740
   
 
 
   
1,193
 
2016 or earlier
   
419
     
741
   
 
17
 
   
1,177
 
Revolving
   
1,096
     
6,034
   
 
 
   
7,130
 
Commercial real estate
 
 
2,903
 
   
14,939
     
50
     
17,892
 
2021
   
381
     
43
     
191
     
615
 
2020
   
287
     
274
     
110
     
671
 
2019
 
 
 
   
3
     
205
     
208
 
2018
 
 
 
   
93
     
177
     
270
 
2017
 
 
8
 
   
53
     
127
     
188
 
2016 or earlier
 
 
 
   
1
     
58
     
59
 
Revolving
   
435
     
9,910
   
 
 
   
10,345
 
Residential real estate
 
 
1,111
 
 
 
10,377
 
 
 
868
 
 
 
12,356
 
2021
   
104
     
428
     
246
     
778
 
2020
 
 
 
   
75
     
400
     
475
 
2019
 
 
 
   
31
     
21
     
52
 
2018
 
 
 
   
33
   
 
 
   
33
 
2017
 
 
 
   
6
     
9
     
15
 
Revolving
   
2,506
     
1,365
     
84
     
3,955
 
Other
   
2,610
     
1,938
     
760
     
5,308
 
Total
   
$
47,429
     
$
67,434
     
$
4,795
     
$
119,658
 
 
Percentage of total
 
 
40%
 
   
56%
     
4%
     
100%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
    As of December 2020  
         
$ in millions
    Investment-
Grade

 
   
 
Non-Investment-
Grade
 
 
   
 
Other Metrics/
Unrated
 
 
    Total  
2020
    $  1,978       $  7,545       $   140       $  9,663  
2019
    889       6,106    
 
 
    6,995  
2018
    2,076       3,555    
 
 
    5,631  
2017
    851       3,083    
 
 
    3,934  
2016
    268       1,262    
 
 
    1,530  
2015 or earlier
    351       2,073    
 
 
    2,424  
Revolving
    2,662       11,891       48       14,601  
Corporate
    9,075       35,515       188       44,778  
2020
    497       313    
 
 
    810  
2019
    723       403    
 
 
    1,126  
2018
    298       87    
 
 
    385  
2017
    377       30    
 
 
    407  
2016
    22       20    
 
 
    42  
2015 or earlier
    531       264    
 
 
    795  
Revolving
    18,077       2,085       1,424       21,586  
Wealth management
    20,525       3,202       1,424       25,151  
2020
    848       3,071       55       3,974  
2019
    76       1,965    
 
 
    2,041  
2018
    137       2,164       25       2,326  
2017
    26       1,734       12       1,772  
2016
 
 
 
    165       9       174  
2015 or earlier
 
 
 
    775       526       1,301  
Revolving
    461       5,047    
 
 
    5,508  
Commercial real estate
    1,548       14,921       627       17,096  
2020
    402       976       115       1,493  
2019
 
 
 
    90       271       361  
2018
 
 
 
    123       249       372  
2017
    9       83       152       244  
2016
 
 
 
    1    
 
 
    1  
2015 or earlier
 
 
 
 
 
 
    70       70  
Revolving
    225       2,470    
 
 
    2,695  
Residential real estate
    636       3,743       857       5,236  
2020
    242       84       466       792  
2019
 
 
 
    67       29       96  
2018
 
 
 
    46    
 
 
    46  
2017
 
 
 
    8    
 
 
    8  
Revolving
    1,506       664       99       2,269  
Other
    1,748       869       594       3,211  
Total
    $33,532       $58,250       $3,690       $95,472  
 
Percentage of total
    35%       61%       4%       100%  
In the tables above, revolving loans which converted to term loans were not material as of both September 2021 and December 2020. 
The table below presents gross installment loans by refreshed FICO credit scores and origination year and gross credit card loans by refreshed FICO credit scores.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       
$ in millions
   
 
Greater than or
equal to 660
 
 
  
 
Less than 660
 
  
 
Total
 
As of September 2021
                         
2021
 
 
$1,380
 
  
 
$    
 
19
 
  
 
$1,399
 
2020
 
 
816
 
  
 
40
 
  
 
856
 
2019
 
 
658
 
  
 
74
 
  
 
732
 
2018
 
 
347
 
  
 
56
 
  
 
403
 
2017
 
 
47
 
  
 
10
 
  
 
57
 
2016
 
 
2
 
  
 
 
  
 
2
 
Installment
 
 
3,250
 
  
 
199
 
  
 
3,449
 
Credit cards
 
 
4,665
 
  
 
1,586
 
  
 
6,251
 
Total
 
 
$7,915
 
  
 
$1,785
 
  
 
$9,700
 
 
Percentage of total:
                         
Installment
 
 
94%
 
  
 
6%
 
  
 
100%
 
Credit cards
 
 
75%
 
  
 
25%
 
  
 
100%
 
Total
 
 
82%
 
  
 
18%
 
  
 
100%
 
 
As of December 2020
                         
2020
    $1,321        $     38        $1,359  
2019
    1,225        132        1,357  
2018
    792        150        942  
2017
    128        30        158  
2016
    6        1        7  
Installment
    3,472        351        3,823  
Credit cards
    3,398        872        4,270  
Total
    $6,870        $1,223        $8,093  
 
Percentage of total:
                         
Installment
    91%        9%        100%  
Credit cards
    80%        20%        100%  
Total
    85%        15%        100%  
In the table above, credit card loans consist of revolving lines of credit.
Credit Concentrations.
The table below presents the concentration of gross loans by region.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
           
$ in millions
   
 
Carrying
Value
 
 
 
 
Americas
 
 
 
EMEA
 
 
 
Asia
 
 
 
Total
 
As of September 2021
                                       
Corporate
 
 
$  54,107
 
 
 
56%
 
 
 
36%
 
 
 
8%
 
 
 
100%
 
Wealth management
 
 
41,775
 
 
 
86%
 
 
 
11%
 
 
 
3%
 
 
 
100%
 
Commercial real estate
 
 
21,707
 
 
 
75%
 
 
 
19%
 
 
 
6%
 
 
 
100%
 
Residential real estate
 
 
13,359
 
 
 
92%
 
 
 
5%
 
 
 
3%
 
 
 
100%
 
Consumer:
                                       
Installment
 
 
3,449
 
 
 
100%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
100%
 
Credit cards
 
 
6,251
 
 
 
100%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
100%
 
Other
 
 
6,308
 
 
 
88%
 
 
 
10%
 
 
 
2%
 
 
 
100%
 
Total
 
 
$146,956
 
 
 
75%
 
 
 
20%
 
 
 
5%
 
 
 
100%
 
 
As of December 2020
                                       
Corporate
    $  48,659       60%       31%       9%       100%  
Wealth management
    33,023       88%       10%       2%       100%  
Commercial real estate
    20,290       71%       19%       10%       100%  
Residential real estate
    5,750       88%       9%       3%       100%  
Consumer:
                                       
Installment
    3,823       100%                   100%  
Credit cards
    4,270       100%                   100%  
Other
    4,174       81%       17%       2%       100%  
Total
    $119,989       75%       19%       6%       100%  
In the table above:
 
 
EMEA represents Europe, Middle East and Africa.
 
 
The top five industry concentrations for corporate loans as of September 2021 were 20% for technology, media & telecommunications (17% as of December 2020), 19% for funds (13% as of December 2020), 15% for diversified industrials (17% as of December 2020), 8% for natural resources & utilities (12% as of December 2020), and 8% for financial institutions (10% as of December 2020).
Nonaccrual and Past Due Loans.
Loans accounted for at amortized cost (other than credit card loans) are placed on nonaccrual status when it is probable that the firm will not collect all principal and interest due under the contractual terms, regardless of the delinquency status or if a loan is past due for 90 days or more, unless the loan is both well collateralized and in the process of collection. At that time, all accrued but uncollected interest is reversed against interest income and interest subsequently collected is recognized on a cash basis to the extent the loan balance is deemed collectible. Otherwise, all cash received is used to reduce the outstanding loan balance. A loan is considered past due when a principal or interest payment has not been made according to its contractual terms. Credit card loans are not placed on nonaccrual status and accrue interest until the loan is paid in full or is charged off.
In certain circumstances, the firm may modify the original terms of a loan agreement by granting a concession to a borrower experiencing financial difficulty, typically in the form of a modification of loan covenants, but may also include forbearance of interest or principal, payment extensions or interest rate reductions. These modifications, to the extent significant, are considered troubled debt restructurings (TDRs). Loan modifications that extend payment terms for a period of less than 90 days are generally considered insignificant and therefore not reported as TDRs.
The firm adopted the relief issued under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, as amended, and certain interpretive guidance issued by the U.S. banking agencies that provides for certain modified loans that would otherwise meet the definition of a TDR to not be classified as such. Loans accounted for at amortized cost that were not classified as TDRs as a result of this relief and interpretive guidance were $219 million as of September 2021 and were $184 million as of December 2020. 
Management’s estimate of credit losses entails judgment about loan collectability at the reporting dates, and there are uncertainties inherent in those judgments. The allowance for credit losses is subject to a governance process that involves review and approval by senior management within the firm’s independent risk oversight and control functions. Personnel within the firm’s independent risk oversight and control functions are responsible for forecasting the economic variables that underlie the economic scenarios that are used in the modeling of expected credit losses. While management uses the best information available to determine this estimate, future adjustments to the allowance may be necessary based on, among other things, changes in the economic environment or variances between actual results and the original assumptions used.
The table below presents gross loans and lending commitments accounted for at amortized cost by portfolio.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
    As of  
       
   
September 2021
   
    
  December 2020  
           
$ in millions
 
 
Loans
 
 
 
 
Lending
Commitments
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loans
 
   
 
Lending
Commitments
 
 
Wholesale
                                   
Corporate
 
 
$  48,943
 
 
 
$150,464
 
        $  44,778       $127,756  
Wealth management
 
 
35,159
 
 
 
4,014
 
        25,151       2,314  
Commercial real estate
 
 
17,892
 
 
 
4,183
 
        17,096       4,154  
Residential real estate
 
 
12,356
 
 
 
2,785
 
        5,236       1,804  
Other
 
 
5,308
 
 
 
5,183
 
        3,211       4,841  
Consumer
                                   
Installment
 
 
3,449
 
 
 
11
 
        3,823       4  
Credit cards
 
 
6,251
 
 
 
31,718
 
 
 
    4,270       21,640  
Total
 
 
$129,358
 
 
 
$198,358
 
 
 
    $103,565       $162,513  
In the table above:
 
 
Wholesale loans included $2.66 billion as of September 2021 and $3.51 billion as of December 2020 of nonaccrual loans for which the allowance for credit losses was measured on an asset-specific basis. The allowance for credit losses on these loans was $575 million as of September 2021 and $649 million as of December 2020. These loans included $161 million as of September 2021 and $584 million as of December 2020 of loans which did not require a reserve as the loan was deemed to be recoverable.
 
 
Credit card lending commitments included $29.79 billion as of September 2021 and $21.64 billion as of December 2020 related to credit card lines issued by the firm to consumers. These credit card lines are cancellable by the firm. Credit card lending commitments also included approximately $2.0 billion as of September 2021 related to a commitment to acquire the General Motors
co-branded
credit card portfolio.
See Note 18 for further information about lending commitments.
The following is a description of the methodology used to calculate the allowance for credit losses:
Wholesale.
The allowance for credit losses for wholesale loans and lending commitments that exhibit similar risk characteristics is measured using a modeled approach. These models determine the probability of default and loss given default based on various risk factors, including internal credit ratings, industry default and loss data, expected life, macroeconomic indicators, the borrower’s capacity to meet its financial obligations, the borrower’s country of risk and industry, loan seniority and collateral type. For lending commitments, the methodology also considers probability of drawdowns or funding. In addition, for loans backed by real estate, risk factors include the
loan-to-value
ratio, debt service ratio and home price index. The most significant inputs to the forecast model for wholesale loans and lending commitments include unemployment rates, GDP, credit spreads, commercial and industrial delinquency rates, short- and long-term interest rates, and oil prices.
The allowance for loan losses for wholesale loans that do not share similar risk characteristics, such as nonaccrual loans or loans in a TDR, is calculated using the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at the loan’s original effective rate, the observable market price of the loan or the fair value of the collateral.
Wholesale loans are charged off against the allowance for loan losses when deemed to be uncollectible.
Consumer.
The allowance for credit losses for consumer loans that exhibit similar risk characteristics is calculated using a modeled approach which classifies consumer loans into pools based on borrower-related and exposure-related characteristics that differentiate a pool’s risk characteristics from other pools. The factors considered in determining a pool are generally consistent with the risk characteristics used for internal credit risk measurement and management and include key metrics, such as FICO credit scores, delinquency status, loan vintage and macroeconomic indicators. The most significant inputs to the forecast model for consumer loans include unemployment rates and delinquency rates. The expected life of revolving credit card loans is determined by modeling expected future draws and the timing and amount of repayments allocated to the funded balance. The firm also recognizes an allowance for credit losses on commitments to acquire loans. However, no allowance for credit losses is recognized on credit card lending commitments as they are cancellable by the firm.
The allowance for credit losses for consumer loans that do not share similar risk characteristics, such as loans in a TDR, is calculated using the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at the loan’s original effective rate. 
The provision for credit losses reflected growth in the firm’s wholesale and consumer
lending portfolios
, including a provision for credit losses of approximately $185 million relating to the pending acquisition of the General Motors co-branded credit card portfolio, partially offset by reserve reduction driven by improved broader economic conditions.
Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for the nine months ended September 2021 for wholesale loans were primarily related to corporate loans and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to credit cards.
Forecast model inputs as of September 2021.
When modeling expected credit losses, the firm employs a weighted, multivariate forecast, which includes baseline, adverse and favorable economic scenarios. As of September 2021, the forecasted economic scenarios were most heavily weighted towards the baseline and adverse scenarios. The forecast model incorporated adjustments to reflect the impact of the coronavirus
(COVID-19)
pandemic-related economic support programs provided by national governments.
The table below presents the forecasted range (across the baseline, adverse and favorable scenarios) of the U.S. unemployment and U.S. GDP growth rates used in the forecast model as of September 2021.
 
 
 
 
U.S. Unemployment
Rate
 
 
 
 
Growth/(Decline)
in U.S. GDP
 
 
Forecast for the quarter ended:
               
December 2021
 
 
4.1% to 6.2%
 
 
 
3.8% to 1.5%
 
June 2022
 
 
3.6% to 9.5%
 
 
 
5.8% to (1.0)%
 
December 2022
 
 
3.4% to 9.7%
 
 
 
7.4% to (0.9)%
 
In the table above:
 
 
U.S. unemployment rate represents the rate forecasted as of the respective
quarter-end.
 
 
Growth/(decline) in U.S. GDP represents the change in quarterly U.S. GDP relative to the U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2019
(pre-pandemic
levels).
 
 
While the U.S. unemployment and U.S. GDP growth rates are significant inputs to the forecast model, the model contemplates a variety of other inputs across a range of scenarios to provide a forecast of future economic conditions. Given the complex nature of the forecasting process, no single economic variable can be viewed in isolation and independently of other inputs.
Three Months Ended September 2020.
The allowance for credit losses decreased by $62 million during the three months ended September 2020.
The provision for credit losses reflected ratings downgrades and asset-specific provisions related to wholesale loans (relating to borrowers in the technology, media & telecommunications, diversified industrials and natural resources industries), and growth in consumer loans, partially offset by reserve reductions from paydowns on corporate lines of credit.
Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for the three months ended September 2020 for wholesale loans were substantially all related to corporate loans and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to installment loans.
Nine Months Ended September 2020.
The allowance for credit losses increased by $2.53 billion during the nine months ended September 2020 reflecting $679 million relating to the impact of CECL adoption and $1.85 billion from activity during the period.
The provision for credit losses for wholesale and consumer loans reflected the impact of the
COVID-19
pandemic on economic conditions, which resulted in higher modeled expected losses and lower recoveries. In addition, the provision for credit losses for wholesale loans was impacted by asset-specific provisions and ratings downgrades primarily related to borrowers in the technology, media & telecommunications, diversified industrials, and natural resources industries. Besides the weaker economic outlook related to the
COVID-19
pandemic, the provision for credit losses for consumer loans for the nine months ended September 2020 was also impacted by the continued seasoning of the credit card portfolio.
Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for the nine months ended September 2020 for wholesale loans were substantially all related to corporate loans and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to installment loans. 
Fair Value of Loans by Level
The table below presents loans held for investment accounted for at fair value under the fair value option by level within the fair value hierarchy.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         
$ in millions
    Level 1        Level 2        Level 3        Total  
As of September 2021
                                  
Loan Type
                                  
Corporate
 
 
$  –
 
  
 
$  2,245
 
  
 
$  
 
775
 
  
 
$  3,020
 
Wealth management
 
 
 
  
 
6,553
 
  
 
63
 
  
 
6,616
 
Commercial real estate
 
 
 
  
 
719
 
  
 
936
 
  
 
1,655
 
Residential real estate
 
 
 
  
 
185
 
  
 
166
 
  
 
351
 
Other
 
 
 
  
 
203
 
  
 
259
 
  
 
462
 
Total
 
 
$  –
 
  
 
$  9,905
 
  
 
$2,199
 
  
 
$12,104
 
 
As of December 2020
                                  
Loan Type
                                  
Corporate
    $  –        $  1,822        $   929        $  2,751  
Wealth management
           7,809        63        7,872  
Commercial real estate
           857        1,104        1,961  
Residential real estate
           234        260        494  
Other
           225        322        547  
Total
    $  –        $10,947        $2,678        $13,625  
The gains as a result of changes in the fair value of loans held for investment for which the fair value option was elected were $30 million for the three months ended September 2021, $64 million for the three months ended September 2020, $223 million for the nine months ended September 2021 and $49 million for the nine months ended September 2020. These gains were included in other principal transactions.
See Note 4 for an overview of the firm’s fair value measurement policies and the valuation techniques and significant inputs used to determine the fair value of loans.
Significant Unobservable Inputs
The table below presents the amount of level 3 loans, and ranges and weighted averages of significant unobservable inputs used to value such loans.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       
   
As of September 2021
   
    
  As of December 2020  
           
$ in millions
 
 
 
Amount or
Range
 
 
 
 
Weighted
Average
 
 
 
 
   
 
Amount or
Range
 
 
    Weighted
Average
 
 
Corporate
                                   
Level 3 assets
 
 
$775
 
                $929          
Yield
 
 
2.3% to 40.3%
 
 
 
8.9%
 
        1.1% to 45.2%       12.4%  
Recovery rate
 
 
20.0% to 94.4%
 
 
 
56.0%
 
        15.0% to 58.0%       31.0%  
Duration (years)
 
 
1.7 to 4.5
 
 
 
3.2
 
 
 
    1.5 to 5.3       3.4  
Commercial real estate
 
                           
Level 3 assets
 
 
$936
 
                $1,104          
Yield
 
 
7.0% to 25.4%
 
 
 
14.4%
 
        4.5% to 19.3%       11.0%  
Recovery rate
 
 
2.5% to 99.5%
 
 
 
39.6%
 
        3.0% to 99.8%       66.5%  
Duration (years)
 
 
0.2 to 4.1
 
 
 
1.4
 
 
 
    0.3 to 4.8       2.6  
Residential real estate
 
                           
Level 3 assets
 
 
$166
 
                $260          
Yield
 
 
2.0% to 13.5%
 
 
 
11.0%
 
        2.0% to 14.0%       12.1%  
Duration (years)
 
 
0.4 to 2.4
 
 
 
0.9
 
 
 
    0.6 to 2.6       1.7  
Wealth management and other
 
                   
Level 3 assets
 
 
$322
 
                $385          
Yield
 
 
3.5% to 18.7%
 
 
 
7.9%
 
        2.8% to 18.7%       8.0%  
Duration (years)
 
 
3.1 to 5.7
 
 
 
4.0
 
 
 
    0.9 to 5.5       4.1  
In the table above:
 
 
Ranges represent the significant unobservable inputs that were used in the valuation of each type of loan.
 
 
Weighted averages are calculated by weighting each input by the relative fair value of the loan.
 
 
The ranges and weighted averages of these inputs are not representative of the appropriate inputs to use when calculating the fair value of any one loan. For example, the highest yield for residential real estate loans is appropriate for valuing a specific residential real estate loan but may not be appropriate for valuing any other residential real estate loan. Accordingly, the ranges of inputs do not represent uncertainty in, or possible ranges of, fair value measurements of level 3 loans.
 
 
Increases in yield or duration used in the valuation of level 3 loans would have resulted in a lower fair value measurement, while increases in recovery rate would have resulted in a higher fair value measurement as of both September 2021 and December 2020. Due to the distinctive nature of each level 3 loan, the interrelationship of inputs is not necessarily uniform within each product type.
 
 
Loans are valued using discounted cash flows.
Level 3 Rollforward
The table below presents a summary of the changes in fair value for level 3 loans.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       
   
Three Months
Ended September
       
Nine Months
Ended September
 
           
$ in millions
 
 
2021
 
     2020           
 
2021
 
     2020  
Beginning balance
 
 
$2,229
 
     $2,659        
 
$2,678
 
     $1,890  
Net realized gains/(losses)
 
 
23
 
     23        
 
72
 
     60  
Net unrealized gains/(losses)
 
 
(16
     76        
 
(31
     34  
Purchases
 
 
74
 
     181        
 
140
 
     557  
Sales
 
 
(13
     (17      
 
(17
     (31
Settlements
 
 
(181
     (221      
 
(555
     (567
Transfers into level 3
 
 
93
 
     166        
 
181
 
     928  
Transfers out of level 3
 
 
(10
     (40  
 
 
 
(269
     (44
Ending balance
 
 
$2,199
 
     $2,827    
 
 
 
$2,199
 
     $2,827  
In the table above:
 
 
Changes in fair value are presented for loans that are classified in level 3 as of the end of the period.
 
 
Net unrealized gains/(losses) relates to loans that were still held at
period-end.
 
 
Purchases includes originations and secondary purchases.
 
 
Transfers between levels of the fair value hierarchy are reported at the beginning of the reporting period in which they occur. If a loan was transferred to level 3 during a reporting period, its entire gain or loss for the period is classified in level 3.
The table below presents information, by loan type, for loans included in the summary table above.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       
   
Three Months
Ended September
   
    
 
Nine Months
Ended September
 
           
$ in millions
 
 
2021
 
     2020    
 
 
 
2021
 
    2020  
Corporate
                                    
Beginning balance
 
 
$852
 
     $   939        
 
$  
    
929
 
    $   752  
Net realized gains/(losses)
 
 
11
 
     7        
 
21
 
    14  
Net unrealized gains/(losses)
 
 
(16
     1        
 
(24
    (5
Purchases
 
 
17
 
     132        
 
63
 
    184  
Sales
 
 
(13
     (9      
 
(13
    (18
Settlements
 
 
(81
     (58      
 
(208
    (110
Transfers into level 3
 
 
15
 
     23        
 
103
 
    230  
Transfers out of level 3
 
 
(10
     (32  
 
 
 
(96
    (44
Ending balance
 
 
$775
 
     $1,003    
 
 
 
$  
    
775
 
    $1,003  
 
Commercial real estate
                                    
Beginning balance
 
 
$920
 
     $1,084        
 
$1,104
 
    $   591  
Net realized gains/(losses)
 
 
9
 
     11        
 
33
 
    38  
Net unrealized gains/(losses)
 
 
11
 
     43        
 
(15
    4  
Purchases
 
 
 
     40        
 
19
 
    323  
Sales
 
 
 
     (5      
 
(3
    (10
Settlements
 
 
(82
     (120      
 
(227
    (278
Transfers into level 3
 
 
78
 
     121        
 
78
 
    498  
Transfers out of level 3
 
 
 
     (8  
 
 
 
(53
     
Ending balance
 
 
$936
 
     $1,166    
 
 
 
$  
    
936
 
    $1,166  
 
Residential real estate
                                    
Beginning balance
 
 
$118
 
     $   268        
 
$  
    
260
 
    $   221  
Net realized gains/(losses)
 
 
3
 
     3        
 
6
 
    7  
Net unrealized gains/(losses)
 
 
1
 
     11        
 
(36
    8  
Purchases
 
 
57
 
     1        
 
58
 
    43  
Sales
 
 
 
     (2      
 
(1
    (2
Settlements
 
 
(13
     (22      
 
(45
    (57
Transfers into level 3
 
 
 
     10        
 
 
    49  
Transfers out of level 3
 
 
 
        
 
 
 
(76
     
Ending balance
 
 
$166
 
     $   269    
 
 
 
$  
    
166
 
    $   269  
 
Wealth management and other
                                    
Beginning balance
 
 
$339
 
     $   368        
 
$  
    
385
 
    $   326  
Net realized gains/(losses)
 
 
 
     2        
 
12
 
    1  
Net unrealized gains/(losses)
 
 
(12
     21        
 
44
 
    27  
Purchases
 
 
 
     8        
 
 
    7  
Sales
 
 
 
     (1      
 
 
    (1
Settlements
 
 
(5
     (21      
 
(75
    (122
Transfers into level 3
 
 
 
     12        
 
 
    151  
Transfers out of level 3
 
 
 
        
 
 
 
(44
     
Ending balance
 
 
$322
 
     $   389    
 
 
 
$  
    
322
 
    $   389  
Level 3 Rollforward Commentary
Three Months Ended September 2021.
The net realized and unrealized gains on level 3 loans of $7 million (reflecting $23 million of net realized gains and $16 million of net unrealized losses) for the three months ended September 2021 included losses of $7 million reported in other principal transactions and gains of $14 million reported in interest income.
The drivers of the net unrealized losses on level 3 loans for the three months ended September 2021 were not material.
The drivers of both the transfers into level 3 loans and transfers out of level 3 loans during the three months ended September 2021 were not material.
Nine Months Ended September 2021.
The net realized and unrealized gains on level 3 loans of $41 million (reflecting $72 million of net realized gains and $31 million of net unrealized losses) for the nine months ended September 2021 included gains of $15 million reported in other principal transactions and $26 million reported in interest income.
The drivers of the net unrealized losses on level 3 loans for the nine months ended September 2021 were not material.
Transfers into level 3 loans during the nine months ended September 2021 primarily reflected transfers of certain corporate loans from level 2 (principally due to reduced price transparency as a result of a lack of market evidence, including fewer market transactions in these instruments).
Transfers out of level 3 loans during the nine months ended September 2021 primarily reflected transfers of certain corporate loans and loans backed by residential real estate to level 2 (in each case, principally due to increased price transparency as a result of market evidence, including market transactions in these instruments).
Three Months Ended September 2020.
The net realized and unrealized gains on level 3 loans of $99 million (reflecting $23 million of net realized gains and $76 million of net unrealized gains) for the three months ended September 2020 included gains of $86 million reported in other principal transactions and $13 million reported in interest income.
The drivers of the net unrealized gains on level 3 loans for the three months ended September 2020 were not material.
Transfers into level 3 loans during the three months ended September 2020 primarily reflected transfers of certain loans backed by commercial real estate from level 2 (principally due to certain unobservable inputs becoming significant to the valuation of these instruments) and transfers of certain other loans backed by commercial real estate from level 2 (principally due to reduced price transparency as a result of a lack of market evidence, including fewer market transactions in these instruments).
The drivers of transfers out of level 3 loans during the three months ended September 2020 were not material. 
Nine Months Ended September 2020.
The net realized and unrealized gains on level 3 loans of $94 million (reflecting $60 million of net realized gains and $34 million of net unrealized gains) for the nine months ended September 2020 included gains of $70 million reported in other principal transactions and $24 million reported in interest income.
The drivers of the net unrealized gains on level 3 loans for the nine months ended September 2020 were not material.
Transfers into level 3 loans during the nine months ended September 2020 primarily reflected transfers of certain loans backed by commercial real estate, corporate loans and wealth management and other loans from level 2 (in each case, principally due to reduced price transparency as a result of a lack of market evidence, including fewer market transactions in these instruments).
The drivers of transfers out of level 3 loans during the nine months ended September 2020 were not material.
Estimated Fair Value
The table below presents the estimated fair value of loans that are not accounted for at fair value and in what level of the fair value hierarchy they would have been classified if they had been included in the firm’s fair value hierarchy.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       
   
Carrying
Value
   
        
  Estimated Fair Value  
$ in millions
 
 
    Level 2        Level 3        Total  
As of September 2021
                                     
Amortized cost
 
 
$126,026
 
     
 
$71,984
 
  
 
$55,179
 
  
 
$127,163
 
Held for sale
 
 
$    5,494
 
     
 
$  2,898
 
  
 
$  2,618
 
  
 
$    5,516
 
 
As of December 2020
                                     
Amortized cost
    $  99,691           $52,793        $48,512        $101,305  
Held for sale
    $    2,799    
 
    $  1,541        $  1,271        $    2,812