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| Loans | Note 9. Loans Loans include (i) loans held for investment that are accounted for at amortized cost net of allowance for loan losses or at fair value under the fair value option and (ii) loans held for sale that are accounted for at the lower of cost or fair value. Interest on loans is recognized over the life of the loan and is recorded on an accrual basis. The table below presents information about loans.
The following is a description of the loan types in the table above:
Credit Quality Risk Assessment. The firm’s risk assessment process includes evaluating the credit quality of its loans. For corporate loans and a majority of wealth management, real estate and other loans, the firm performs credit reviews which include initial and ongoing analyses of its borrowers, resulting in an internal credit rating. A credit review is an independent analysis of the capacity and willingness of a borrower to meet its financial obligations and is performed on an annual basis or more frequently if circumstances change that indicate that a review may be necessary. The determination of internal credit ratings also incorporates assumptions with respect to the nature of and outlook for the borrower’s industry and the economic environment. The table below presents gross loans by an internally determined public rating agency equivalent or other credit metrics and the concentration of secured and unsecured loans.
In the table above:
The firm also assigns a regulatory risk rating to its loans based on the definitions provided by the U.S. federal bank regulatory agencies. Total loans included 89% of loans as of June 2021 and 85% of loans as of December 2020 that were rated pass/non-criticized. Vintage. The tables below present gross loans accounted for at amortized cost (excluding installment and credit card loans) by an internally determined public rating agency equivalent or other credit metrics and origination year for term loans.
In the tables above, revolving loans which converted to term loans were not material as of both June 2021 and December 2020. The table below presents gross installment loans by refreshed FICO credit scores and origination year and gross credit card loans by refreshed FICO credit scores.
In the table above, credit card loans consist of revolving lines of credit. Credit Concentrations. The table below presents the concentration of gross loans by region.
In the table above:
Nonaccrual and Past Due Loans. Loans accounted for at amortized cost (other than credit card loans) are placed on nonaccrual status when it is probable that the firm will not collect all principal and interest due under the contractual terms, regardless of the delinquency status or if a loan is past due for 90 days or more, unless the loan is both well collateralized and in the process of collection. At that time, all accrued but uncollected interest is reversed against interest income and interest subsequently collected is recognized on a cash basis to the extent the loan balance is deemed collectible. Otherwise, all cash received is used to reduce the outstanding loan balance. A loan is considered past due when a principal or interest payment has not been made according to its contractual terms. Credit card loans are not placed on nonaccrual status and accrue interest until the loan is paid in full or is charged-off. In certain circumstances, the firm may modify the original terms of a loan agreement by granting a concession to a borrower experiencing financial difficulty, typically in the form of a modification of loan covenants, but may also include forbearance of interest or principal, payment extensions or interest rate reductions. These modifications, to the extent significant, are considered troubled debt restructurings (TDRs). Loan modifications that extend payment terms for a period of less than 90 days are generally considered insignificant and therefore not reported as TDRs. The firm adopted the relief issued under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, as amended, and certain interpretive guidance issued by the U.S. banking agencies that provides for certain modified loans that would otherwise meet the definition of a TDR to not be classified as such. Loans accounted for at amortized cost that were not classified as TDRs as a result of this relief and interpretive guidance were $133 million as of June 2021 and were $184 million as of December 2020. The table below presents information about past due loans.
The table below presents information about nonaccrual loans.
In the table above:
Allowance for Credit Losses The firm’s allowance for credit losses consists of the allowance for losses on loans and lending commitments accounted for at amortized cost. Loans and lending commitments accounted for at fair value or accounted for at the lower of cost or fair value are not subject to an allowance for credit losses. To determine the allowance for credit losses, the firm classifies its loans and lending commitments accounted for at amortized cost into wholesale and consumer portfolios. These portfolios represent the level at which the firm has developed and documented its methodology to determine the allowance for credit losses. The allowance for credit losses is measured on a collective basis for loans that exhibit similar risk characteristics using a modeled approach and asset-specific basis for loans that do not share similar risk characteristics. The allowance for credit losses takes into account the weighted average of a range of forecasts of future economic conditions over the expected life of the loan and lending commitments. The expected life of each loan or lending commitment is determined based on the contractual term adjusted for extension options or demand features. The forecasts include baseline, favorable and adverse economic scenarios over a three-year period. For loans with expected lives beyond three years, the model reverts to historical loss information based on a non-linear modeled approach. The forecasted economic scenarios consider a number of risk factors relevant to the wholesale and consumer portfolios described below. The firm applies judgment in weighing individual scenarios each quarter based on a variety of factors, including the firm’s internally derived economic outlook, market consensus, recent macroeconomic conditions and industry trends. The allowance for credit losses also includes qualitative components which allow management to reflect the uncertain nature of economic forecasting, capture uncertainty regarding model inputs, and account for model imprecision and concentration risk. Management’s estimate of credit losses entails judgment about loan collectability at the reporting dates, and there are uncertainties inherent in those judgments. The allowance for credit losses is subject to a governance process that involves review and approval by senior management within the firm’s independent risk oversight and control functions. Personnel within the firm’s independent risk oversight and control functions are responsible for forecasting the economic variables that underlie the economic scenarios that are used in the modeling of expected credit losses. While management uses the best information available to determine this estimate, future adjustments to the allowance may be necessary based on, among other things, changes in the economic environment or variances between actual results and the original assumptions used. The table below presents gross loans and lending commitments accounted for at amortized cost by portfolio.
In the table above:
See Note 18 for further information about lending commitments. The following is a description of the methodology used to calculate the allowance for credit losses: Wholesale. The allowance for credit losses for wholesale loans and lending commitments that exhibit similar risk characteristics is measured using a modeled approach. These models determine the probability of default and loss given default based on various risk factors, including internal credit ratings, industry default and loss data, expected life, macroeconomic indicators, the borrower’s capacity to meet its financial obligations, the borrower’s country of risk and industry, loan seniority and collateral type. For lending commitments, the methodology also considers probability of drawdowns or funding. In addition, for loans backed by real estate, risk factors include the loan-to-value The allowance for loan losses for wholesale loans that do not share similar risk characteristics, such as nonaccrual loans or loans in a troubled debt restructuring, is calculated using the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at the loan’s original effective rate, the observable market price of the loan or the fair value of the collateral. Wholesale loans are charged-off against the allowance for loan losses when deemed to be uncollectible. Consumer. The allowance for credit losses for consumer loans that exhibit similar risk characteristics is calculated using a modeled approach which classifies consumer loans into pools based on borrower-related and exposure-related characteristics that differentiate a pool’s risk characteristics from other pools. The factors considered in determining a pool are generally consistent with the risk characteristics used for internal credit risk measurement and management and include key metrics, such as FICO credit scores, delinquency status, loan vintage and macroeconomic indicators. The most significant inputs to the forecast model for consumer loans include unemployment rates and delinquency rates. The expected life of revolving credit card loans is determined by modeling expected future draws and the timing and amount of repayments allocated to the funded balance. The firm also recognizes an allowance for credit losses on commitments to acquire loans. However, no allowance for credit losses is recognized on credit card lending commitments as they are cancellable by the firm. The allowance for credit losses for consumer loans that do not share similar risk characteristics, such as loans in a troubled debt restructuring, is calculated using the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at the loan’s original effective rate. Six Months Ended June 2021. The allowance for credit losses decreased by $338 million during the six months ended June 2021. The provision for credit losses for wholesale and consumer loans and lending commitments reflected a reserve reduction driven by improved broader economic conditions and lower credit loss expectations, partially offset by growth in the firm’s wholesale and consumer lending portfolios, including a provision for credit losses of $185 million relating to the pending acquisition of the General Motors co-branded credit card portfolio. Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for the six months ended June 2021 for wholesale loans were not material and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to credit cards. Forecast model inputs as of June 2021. When modeling expected credit losses, the firm employs a weighted, multivariate forecast, which includes baseline, adverse and favorable economic scenarios. As of June 2021, the forecasted economic scenarios were most heavily weighted towards the baseline and adverse scenarios. The forecast model incorporated adjustments to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic-related economic support programs provided by national governments. The table below presents the forecasted range (across the baseline, adverse and favorable scenarios) of the U.S. unemployment and U.S. GDP growth rates used in the forecast model as of June 2021.
In the table above:
Three Months Ended June 2020. The allowance for credit losses increased by $1.19 billion during the three months ended June 2020. The provision for credit losses for wholesale and consumer loans reflected the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and GDP, which deteriorated in the second quarter and resulted in higher modeled expected losses and lower recoveries. In addition, the provision for credit losses for wholesale loans was impacted by ratings downgrades and asset-specific provisions primarily related to borrowers in the diversified industrials, technology, media & telecommunications, and natural resource industries. Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for the three months ended June 2020 for wholesale loans were substantially all related to corporate loans and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to installment loans. Six Months Ended June 2020. The allowance for credit losses increased by $2.59 billion during the six months ended June 2020 reflecting $679 million relating to the impact of CECL adoption and $1.91 billion from activity during the period. The provision for credit losses for wholesale and consumer loans reflected the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic conditions, which resulted in higher modeled expected losses and lower recoveries. In addition, the provision for credit losses for wholesale loans was impacted by ratings downgrades and asset-specific provisions primarily related to borrowers in the technology, media & telecommunications, diversified industrials, and oil and gas industries. Besides the weaker economic outlook related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the provision for credit losses for consumer loans for the six months ended June 2020 was also impacted by the continued seasoning of the credit card portfolio. Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for the six months ended June 2020 for wholesale loans were substantially all related to corporate loans and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to installment loans. Fair Value of Loans by Level The table below presents loans held for investment accounted for at fair value under the fair value option by level within the fair value hierarchy.
The gains/(losses) as a result of changes in the fair value of loans held for investment for which the fair value option was elected were $101 million for the three months ended June 2021, $12 million for the three months ended June 2020, $193 million for the six months ended June 2021 and $(15) million for the six months ended June 2020. These gains/(losses) were included in other principal transactions. See Note 4 for an overview of the firm’s fair value measurement policies and the valuation techniques and significant inputs used to determine the fair value of loans. Significant Unobservable Inputs The table below presents the amount of level 3 loans, and ranges and weighted averages of significant unobservable inputs used to value such loans.
In the table above:
Level 3 Rollforward The table below presents a summary of the changes in fair value for level 3 loans.
In the table above:
The table below presents information, by loan type, for loans included in the summary table above.
Level 3 Rollforward Commentary Three Months Ended June 2021. The net realized and unrealized gains on level 3 loans of $43 million (reflecting $21 million of net realized gains and $22 million of net unrealized gains) for the three months ended June 2021 included gains of $32 million reported in other principal transactions and $11 million reported in interest income. The drivers of the net unrealized gains on level 3 loans for the three months ended June 2021 were not material. The drivers of transfers into level 3 loans during the three months ended June 2021 were not material. Transfers out of level 3 loans during the three months ended June 2021 primarily reflected transfers of certain corporate loans and commercial real estate to level 2 (in each case, principally due to increased price transparency as a result of market evidence, including market transactions in these instruments). Six Months Ended June 2021. The net realized and unrealized gains on level 3 loans of $36 million (reflecting $47 million of net realized gains and $11 million of net unrealized losses) for the six months ended June 2021 included gains of $19 million reported in other principal transactions and $17 million reported in interest income. The drivers of the net unrealized losse s on level 3 loans for the six months ended June 2021 were not material. The drivers of transfers into level 3 loans during the six months ended June 2021 reflected transfers of certain corporate loans from level 2 (principally due to reduced price transparency as a result of a lack of market evidence including fewer market transactions in these instruments). Transfers out of level 3 loans during the six months ended June 2021 primarily reflected transfers of certain corporate loans and residential real estate to level 2 (in each case, principally due to increased price transparency as a result of market evidence, including market transactions in these instruments). Three Months Ended June 2020. The net realized and unrealized gains on level 3 loans of $26 million (reflecting $16 million of net realized gains and $10 million of net unrealized gains) for the three months ended June 2020 included gains of $15 million reported in other principal transactions and $11 million reported in interest income. The drivers of the net unrealized gains on level 3 loans for the three months ended June 2020 were not material. Transfers into level 3 loans during the three months ended June 2020 primarily reflected transfers of certain corporate loans from level 2 (principally due to reduced price transparency as a result of a lack of market evidence, including fewer market transactions in these instruments). Transfers out of level 3 loans during the three months ended June 2020 reflected transfers of certain corporate loans to level 2 (principally due to certain unobservable yield and duration inputs no longer being significant to the valuation of these instruments). Six Months Ended June 2020. The net realized and unrealized losses on level 3 loans of $16 million (reflecting $37 million of net realized gains and $53 million of net unrealized losses) for the six months ended June 2020 included gains/(losses) of $(35) million reported in other principal transactions and $19 million reported in interest income. The drivers of the net unrealized losses on level 3 loans for the six months ended June 2020 were not material. Transfers into level 3 loans during the six months ended June 2020 primarily reflected transfers of certain loans backed by commercial real estate and corporate loans from level 2 (in each case, principally due to reduced price transparency as a result of a lack of market evidence, including fewer market transactions in these instruments). The drivers of transfers out of level 3 loans during the six months ended June 2020 were not material. Estimated Fair Value The table below presents the estimated fair value of loans that are not accounted for at fair value and in what level of the fair value hierarchy they would have been classified if they had been included in the firm’s fair value hierarchy.
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